> research · 10 studies

Market ideas, tested on real data.

Out of sample, costs included, sources linked. We publish the answer either way — most ideas that sound clever don’t survive the test, and knowing which ones is worth money.

latest · Sep 29, 2026 · event study

Do record stock buybacks beat the market?

12 of 21Close to a coin flip

US buybacks of $50B or more that beat the S&P 500 over the next 12 months

Across every US buyback authorization of $50 billion or more since 2018, the stock beat the S&P 500 a year later 12 times out of 21, by a median 2.6 points. Nvidia’s record $150 billion is 2.8% of its value, 19th of 25 by size.

stocks in itNVDAAAPLGOOGLMSFT

Read the studySee how much Nvidia your funds hold
Horizontal bar chart of the 21 US buyback authorizations of $50 billion or more since 2018 with a full year of data: 12 beat the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, from Alphabet April 2025 at +88.4 points to Meta October 2021 at −43.9 points

data · Company releases and SEC filings, Yahoo Finance adjusted closes, SPY · 2018–2026

Earlier studies

question · answer · evidence

Sep 29, 2026
historical episodes

What held up when bond yields spiked?

In the 7 yield spikes since 1963 when stocks fell, a 60/40 with 10-year Treasuries lost almost as much as stocks alone, a median 6.6% against 7.4%. Holding T-bills instead cut the loss to 2.5%.

stocks in itTLTBNDGLDXLP

data · Ken French market and industries, FRED 10-year yield and CPI, World Bank gold · 1962–2026 · replay 2022 on your holdings →

7 of 7yield spikes that sank stocks where T-bills still rose; 10-year Treasuries rose in noneCash, not bonds

Sep 26, 2026
historical episodes

Do stocks fall when bond yields rise?

A 1-point jump in the 10-year yield came with stocks rising in every low-inflation episode and falling in half of the high-inflation ones. The yield alone tells you little; the inflation behind it decides.

stocks in itSPYTLTQQQ

data · FRED 10-year yield and CPI · S&P 500 · 1963–2026 · replay 2022 on your holdings →

7 of 20yield spikes since 1963 came with a falling S&P 500, all with inflation at 3%+Only with inflation

Sep 25, 2026
holdings analysis

Are two ETFs really two bets?

Measured on every holding, VOO and VTI are nearly one fund and QQQ is half of VOO; SCHD and VOO share under 8%. Calculators that read only the top ten holdings miss most of the overlap.

stocks in itVOOVTIQQQSCHDJEPIXLK

data · Issuers’ full holdings files · 25 ETFs, Aug–Sep 2026 · check two funds →

88.6%of VOO and VTI is the same money, 300 pairs measuredOften not

Sep 25, 2026
event study

Does a stock drop by the dividend on the ex-date?

Prices fall by most of the dividend, not all of it, and by more of it as the payout grows: 67 cents per $1 on the smallest dividends, 97 cents on the largest. Most are back above the old close within a session or two.

stocks in itTVZPFEXOMSCHDJEPI

data · Yahoo Finance prices and dividends · 14,012 ex-dates, 2016–2026 · see this week’s ex-dates →

85.5¢median drop at the open per $1 of dividend, 14,012 ex-datesMost of it

House rules

  1. 01

    Out of sample

    A rule is judged on data it never saw. In-sample wins are where most backtests go to lie.

  2. 02

    Costs counted

    Every trade pays for itself. An edge that vanishes after fees was never an edge.

  3. 03

    Failures published

    A clean “no” is a result. It saves you the money of finding out yourself.

  4. 04

    Sources linked

    Every figure traces to its source, and the code behind each backtest is kept with it.

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Research, not recommendations. Not investment advice.