Open Bell Brief · free daily email
Wall Street in 60s,
before the US open.
Each trading morning: where stocks, rates and the dollar closed, the one story that moved them, and what to watch at the open. Written in plain words, read in a minute.
What’s in each brief
1
The closes
Stocks, the 10-year yield, the VIX and the dollar at yesterday’s close, each with its move. Five lines, read in ten seconds.
2
Why it moved
The one story behind the day, stocks or macro, in plain words. When it deserves more, a link to the full note on the site.
3
What to watch at the open
The earnings, data release or level that can change the session, so you know what matters before the US open.
Recent market notes
Every close, dated, on /markets- October 22, 2026Why are luxury stocks down? LVMH −39.9% and Hermès −39.2% in 2026
- October 19, 2026Tesla stock fell after 31 of its 59 results reports. The size of the move is the story
- October 17, 2026The CAC 40 before the October 17 protest, and what past protest weekends did to it
- October 17, 2026Stock market week in review, Oct. 12–16, 2026: chips fall 11.41%, oil tops $100
When a move needs more than a minute
Plain-English explainers on risk, valuation, DCA, dividends, and market mechanics.
- What drawdown actually meansA plain-English explainer on peak-to-trough losses, recovery burden, and why drawdown matters more than daily noise.
- How to track your portfolio in one placeA cleaner way to move from scattered broker exports and spreadsheets to one readable portfolio view.
- How to tell if your portfolio is actually diversifiedA simple checklist for spotting hidden concentration across sectors, currencies, and accounts.
- How to calculate your portfolio returnSimple, money-weighted and time-weighted returns measure three different things. Which one answers your question, with a calculator.
- How to benchmark your portfolio against the S&P 500Beating the market depends on which market you picked. Four common benchmarks finished 43 points apart over the same three years.
- Where your holdings hideSeventeen brokers, six different names for the screen that lists what you own, and seven that make you go looking for it.
- Why P/E is not enoughUse the P/E ratio correctly, understand what it misses, and stop treating one metric like a complete stock thesis.
- Why DCA is simple but not foolproofDollar-cost averaging is helpful, but it still needs context around valuation, discipline, and what you are averaging into.
- How to analyze a stock in plain EnglishLearn the fundamentals behind revenue, cash flow, valuation, and risk without needing a finance degree first.
- A record with the 10-year at 5.27%The S&P 500 closed at a record on Oct. 6, 2026 with the 10-year over 5%, a first since 2007. Only 128 of its 500 stocks are higher than at the last record.
- Tax-loss harvesting ETF pairs, measuredOver 261 weeks to Oct. 16, 2026, SMH and SOXX correlated 0.987 yet ended the last year 13.82 points apart. 32 swap pairs measured, same index against different index.
- Does Tesla stock fall after earnings?Tesla fell the session after 31 of its 59 results reports since 2012. The median move was 6.65% either way, against 1.78% on an ordinary day.
- Tesla stock after its product showsTesla unveiled the Roadster on Oct. 15, 2026. After 13 of its 17 earlier evening shows the stock fell the next session, and every time it opened higher it closed under the open.
- VO vs IJH: two mid-cap ETFs, one stock in commonSplit by S&P index on the issuers’ files, the Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF is 90.8% S&P 500 and the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF only 18.6% S&P SmallCap 600.
- Neocloud stocks, measuredThe eight US-listed neoclouds turned $1,000 into $5,989 from March 28, 2025 to Oct. 12, 2026, with a median worst fall of 53.5% against 20.2% for Nvidia.
- Nike at $35: a $500 bet for 10 yearsNike closed 80.2% under its record on Oct. 1, 2026. $500 beats an S&P 500 fund’s median decade only if Nike earns its 2022 record profit again.
- Do stocks fall when bond yields riseWe took every 1-point jump in the 10-year yield since 1963: stocks only lost ground when inflation ran at 3% or more.
- What record buybacks did nextNvidia’s $150B buyback is the biggest ever in dollars. Of the 21 US buybacks of $50B+ before it with a year of data, 12 beat the S&P 500.
- How commodity prices affect the stock marketOil rose 50%+ in a year 13 times since 1970. Inflation rose every time; the S&P 500 fell in 5 of the 8 spikes to a 5-year high.
- What held up when bond yields spikedIn the 7 yield spikes that sank stocks since 1963, a 60/40 with Treasuries lost a median 6.6%; with T-bills, 2.5%.
- Which popular ETFs are the same fundWe measured all 435 pairs of 30 popular ETFs on full holdings: VOO and VTI are 88.6% the same money.
- How much a stock drops on the ex-dividend dateWe measured 14,012 ex-dividend days: prices opened a median 85.5 cents lower per $1 of dividend, not the full dollar.
- Why stocks fall after beating earningsWe measured 1,476 earnings reports: 47.3% of the stocks that beat estimates still closed lower the next session.
- How to track dividend income without spreadsheet chaosA cleaner entry point for investors who want to monitor income, cash flow, and portfolio payouts in one place.