Key facts, as of
As of September 29, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) trades at $31.88, down 20.1% over the past year. Its 52-week range runs from $28.04 to $42.82; the price is 25.5% below that high. It sits 8.7% below its 200-day average of $34.92, the usual sign of a long-term downtrend. Its 30-day volatility is 31.0% annualized, which we rate high risk. It has a trailing P/E of 29.5.
Cite: Portfolio Terminal, "Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock analysis", 2026-09-29. https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/cmg
Where it trades today
trading 26% of the way up its 52-week range
How the price has moved
What to weigh before acting
What Matters Now
- Demand sensitivity, pricing power, and how exposed the business is to macro slowdowns matter more than headline growth alone.
- CMG trades at 29.5x earnings, well above the consumer cyclical average of 20.0x, so the market is already pricing in above-consensus execution.
- Recent realized volatility is running around 31.0%, above the sector norm of 26.0%, so position sizing matters more than usual.
- CMG remains in a bearish short-term trend and sits 25.5% below its high, which raises the bar for any thesis that depends on fast multiple expansion.
Portfolio Use Case
- CMG is more useful for investors comparing conviction names inside consumer cyclical than for someone looking for a passive “set and forget” holding.
- The beta profile suggests it can fit a quality or lower-volatility sleeve more naturally than a high-octane tactical basket.
- It is best monitored alongside valuation discipline, because strong narratives in consumer cyclical can stay expensive longer than expected.
What Would Change the View
- A reset in earnings expectations or a faster peer catch-up could compress the premium valuation currently embedded in CMG.
- A recovery in price alone would not be enough to improve the view; the thesis needs confirmation from improving business or valuation signals.
- Volatility is already above the sector norm, so even a correct long-term thesis can be painful if the position size is too aggressive.
Methodology
- Price, market cap, beta, yield, and liquidity fields for CMG come from Yahoo Finance quote and summary data.
- 30-day volatility is calculated from recent daily returns and annualized using a 252-trading-day convention.
- Sector context uses stored benchmark averages for Consumer Cyclical so each page compares the ticker against a stable peer baseline rather than against the whole market.
- Peer comparisons use the Portfolio Terminal coverage set and highlight nearby listed alternatives such as AMZN, TSLA, HD.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance quote dataopen →
Live quote, valuation, beta, yield, and volume fields used for CMG. Last refresh: Sep 29, 2026, 10:33 PM.
- Portfolio Terminal methodologyopen →
Explains how analytics, refresh cadence, and portfolio interpretation work across the product.
- Peer set and coverage context
Comparative context for this page is anchored around nearby tracked names such as AMZN, TSLA, HD.
What Chipotle Mexican Grill does
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The company sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids' meals, chips, and sides. It also offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork under the Responsibly Raised brand. In addition, the company provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It operates in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport…
What analysts expect
CMG carries a buy consensus from 31 analysts, with an average price target of $43.92 versus $31.88 today (+37.8%). Targets are estimates and can move quickly after earnings.
Consensus aggregated by Yahoo Finance. Targets are estimates, not forecasts.
How the business is doing
CMG generated $12.42B in trailing revenue (9.3% year over year), with a 11.4% net margin, and $1.12B of free cash flow, against $4.74B of net debt.
The numbers, year by year
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $11.93B | $3.03B | $2.01B | $1.54B | $1.15 | $1.45B |
| 2024 | $11.31B | $3.02B | $1.99B | $1.53B | $1.12 | $1.51B |
| 2023 | $9.87B | $2.59B | $1.63B | $1.23B | $0.89 | $1.22B |
| 2022 | $8.63B | $2.06B | $1.21B | $899.10M | $0.65 | $844.01M |
When it reports next
Estimates aggregated by Yahoo Finance. Dates move and estimates change until the report lands.
How it sits in consumer cyclical
Discretionary spending sector sensitive to economic cycles, including retail and automotive.
The companies it competes with
CMG beside the consumer cyclical names it is usually measured against.
AMZNAmazon.com Inc.$246.67$2.66TWhat the chart is saying
In a downtrend, with $31.58 the next floor.
downtrend- Price is 8.1% below its 50-day average and 8.7% below its 200-day.
- The 50-day crossed below the 200-day on 2026-09-22 (a “death cross”).
- RSI at 35 is neither stretched nor washed out.
- The nearest ceiling is $33.61 (+5.4%), the nearest floor $31.58 (-0.9%).
A description of the chart, not advice. Indicators describe what the price has done; none of them knows what it does next.
Questions people ask about it
Is CMG a good buy right now?
Chipotle Mexican Grill trades at 29.5x earnings. This is near market average. Current risk level is High based on 31.0% volatility.
Does CMG pay dividends?
Chipotle Mexican Grill does not currently pay a regular dividend. The company may be reinvesting profits for growth.
How volatile is CMG?
With 30-day annualized volatility of 31.0% and beta of 0.94, CMG is classified as High risk. The stock tends to be more stable than the market average.
What is the analyst price target for CMG?
The average analyst price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is $43.92 based on 31 analyst estimates, about 37.8% above the current price of $31.88. The published range runs from $35.00 to $53.00.
How much revenue does CMG generate?
Chipotle Mexican Grill reported $12.42B in trailing twelve-month revenue. Revenue growth is running at 9.3% year over year. Net margin sits at 11.4%. Figures are aggregated from company filings by Yahoo Finance and refresh on an hourly cadence.
Compare CMG with anything
Five years side by side: what $10,000 became, how far each fell, whether they move together.